Australian Open 2014: Preview

Novak Djokovic looking to win his 5th Australian Open

    

         It seems it was yesterday that the 2013 season ended, with Djokovic beating Nadal in straight sets in the World Tour Finals final to deny the Spaniard the only big trophy still missing in his résumé.  Now, the 2014 season is well under way and with the second week coming to an end all the looks are in Melbourne Park where, as always, the first Grand Slam of the season will be played.

The biggest favorite for the title is definitely Novak Djokovic: The Serb is in a 21 match winning streak here and is looking to win a record-breaking fourth Australian open in a row. Apart from winning the last 3 editions he also conquered his first slam title in Melbourne back in 2008. After a shaky 2013 which include some losses to lower ranked players he finished in style winning four tournaments in a row (Beijing, Shangai, Paris and the World Tour Finals in London). He also won the two singles he played in Serbia’s defeat to the Czech Republic in the Davis Cup final, which means he’ll arrive at the AO with a highly impressive 22 match unbeaten streak.  The surface suits perfectly his game and he’s definitely the man to beat. A win here would make him the only player to win the Australian Open five times in the open era and would cement his status as the best player in the history of the tournament during that period.

Rafael Nadal will undoubtedly be Djokovic’s biggest obstacle in his title defense (He beat the Serbian in both Grand Slam meetings they had in 2013, the Us Open final and Roland Garros semi final). The Spaniard will return to Melbourne after being forced out of the 2013 edition because of a knee injury that kept him seven months out of the tennis courts. His last match here was the memorable final in 2012 that saw him losing to Novak Djokovic in a 6-hour battle (he was leading *4-2 in the decisive set). He returned to the tour stronger than ever last season, winning 5 Masters 1000, 2 Grand Slams and 10 titles overall despite missing the first month of competition and started 2014 picking up where left off last season winning the title in Doha. A 2^nd trophy here would make him the only player to win every Grand Slam event at least twice since Rod Laver did so in 1969. His only win at Melbourne Park came back in 2009, when he won back-to-back 5 set matches against Fernando Verdasco in the Semi final and Roger Federer in the final.

The bets have the Andy Murray as the 3^rd favorite behind Djokovic and Nadal, but there certainly is a question mark regarding the Scottish’s opportunities to compete for the title here. He only played two official matches since last September when he left the tour for a back surgery and seems to be far from his best physical condition. In Doha he lost against Florian Mayer in a match he seemed to have on his pocket (lost 12 of the last 15 games of the match).  He had some great performances here the past few seasons and reached the final three times, losing to Roger Federer in 2010 and Novak Djokovic in 2011 and 2013 so he certainly is a player to consider nonetheless.

Juan Martin del Potro will be another man to watch during this year’s Australian Open. The Tower of Tandil has reached a Grand Slam Semi final again after 4 years in Wimbledon, where he lost an epic battle to Novak Djokovic. He’s been struggling a lot with injuries since 2010 but last season when he was healthy things looked promising, he beat Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and Federer proving that when he’s on he can give anyone a run for their money on any surface. He will be looking to finally reach a grand slam final for the second time in his career since his memorable triumph in Flushing Meadows in 2009.  The AO is the only Grand Slam in which he hasn’t managed to reach at least the semi finals so far but he has a lot of points to gain after a shocking 3^rd round loss to Jeremy Chardy in 2013.

  After his worst season in more than a decade (finished outside the TOP 5 for the first time since 2002), Roger Federer got off to a good start in 2014 reaching the final in Brisbane. Federer last reached the final at the AO in 2010, when he became the top winner of the event in the Open era with 4 titles (record shared with Agassi and Djokovic) after beating Andy Murray in the final. After that he lost to Djokovic, Nadal and Murray himself in the semi finals each year. After struggling with back problems for a big part of 2013 he has been finally able to train pain free for a few months and is looking to return to the top places.  At his age it may seem difficult for him to go toe to toe in five set matches with Nadal, Djokovic or Murray who are five years younger and have a level of fitness almost unmatchable, but you can never count Federer out.

Jo Wilfred Tsonga, David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych are regulars in Grand Slams quarter finals, but it seems highly unlikely one of them can battle for the title. The French reached the final here in 2008, but even though he managed to beat every player in the Big 4 at the slams he was never able to reach that instance again at a major.  His inconsistency always affects his performances and he was never able to produce his best tennis for two weeks in a row since that run six years ago.  Berdych is a similar case. He beat Murray and Federer at slams multiple times, but seems unable to deal with Djokovic or Nadal (especially the later, to whom he lost the last 16 matches they played), players who you must beat for sure to win a slam these days.  Ferrer reached a slam final for the first time in his career last Roland Garros, but he was favored by the draw that put Djokovic and Nadal on the same half. He has reached the quarter finals of every slam in the past two years but loses every time he faces one of the top players.

Some dark horses for the tournament include Stanislas Wawrinka & Jerzy Janowicz. The polish reached the Semi final in Wimbledon and had a respectable performance against eventual champion Andy Murray; he has made a lot of progress last year and a half and has shown tremendous potential. He struggled a bit with some physical issues lately, but at 23 he’s ready to give the final step and consolidate himself at the top. Wawrinka had the best season of his career in 2013, finishing #8 in the ranking and qualifying for the World Tour Finals for the first time in his career. He gave Djokovic a run for his money in both HC slams in 2013, losing in 5 set thrillers both times. In the AO he came really close to causing the upset, having a break point that would have given him the opportunity to serve for the match in the 5^th, Djokovic would end up winning 9-7 and would go on to win the tournament after that. Though it’s highly unlikely they can reach the final they’ve shown they can go far at slams and when their game is on they’re very tough players to deal with.

Predictability has definitely ruled men’s tennis the past few years and it doesn’t look like this year’s Australian Open will be an exception. It all points out to another Djokovic-Nadal final, the sixth one since the Us Open 2010 (and another virtual final in Roland Garros 2013). Federer’s decline, combined with the fact that he hasn’t beaten Nadal at a slam since Wimbledon 2007 and Murray’s recent surgery make it less likely that we can expect something different. Aside from the Swiss and the Scottish, only Juan Martin del Potro looks to have a real shot at upsetting one of the two best players in the world, but hopefully that won’t affect the level of tennis and we’ll have two weeks of thrilling and high-quality matches.